Daily Telegraph predicts No vote

"There's a No in the post, say critics of Prescott's assemblies"
Daily Telegraph
By Philip Johnston, Home Affairs Editor
(Filed: 01/11/2004)
Read online here
The turnout in this week's all-postal referendum for a North East regional assembly could be higher than expected, campaigners said last night.

By Friday about 33 per cent of the region's two million voters had returned their ballot papers and a final surge was anticipated over the weekend, possibly taking the total past 40 per cent when the votes are counted on Thursday.

But while this may encourage the Yes campaign after earlier indications that the assembly was generating little interest, the signs are that the plan - championed by John Prescott, the Deputy Prime Minister - will be rejected. This will leave Mr Prescott's dream of regional government across England in tatters.

Neil Herron, a Sunderland market trader and the head of North East Against a Regional Assembly who has led the fight against the assembly, yesterday said there was "not a cat in hell's chance" of a Yes vote. He added: "The turnout could have been 10 per cent or 100 per cent. It wouldn't make any difference. The answer is still going to be No."
The North East was one of three northern areas originally chosen to hold referendums to set up elected assemblies.

However, the plans were abandoned in Yorkshire and Humberside and in the North West, ostensibly because of fears over ballot-rigging, although opponents said it was because the Government knew that it would lose there.

The North East has long been regarded as the one region that would embrace the idea because of its proximity to Scotland, where devolved powers are credited with attracting investment.
But the Government's arguments that a regional assembly would generate economic growth and bring more jobs to the region does not appear to have convinced many voters.
The opposition campaign has focused on the perceived extravagance of a regional assembly, which it has denounced as a wasteful "talking shop" costing millions to run and providing work only for politicians. The No campaign symbol has been a large inflatable white elephant and supporters have burnt fake £20 notes to drive home their contention that an assembly, costing at least £25 million a year to run, would be a waste of money.

Part of the problem for the pro-assembly campaigners is that its powers would be limited, making the grander claims of its benefits difficult to sell to the electorate.
The assembly would be responsible for a budget of about £500 million and have executive responsibility for the regional development agency; some financial resources for housing, tourism and regeneration; and oversight of a number of bodies, such as the "regional cultural consortium".

At the weekend, Ray Mallon, the mayor of Middlesbrough and a former police chief, threw his support behind the assembly. He said it would give local people more of a say over issues such as transport and crime.

But John Elliot, the chairman of the North Says No Campaign, the officially-funded umbrella group opposed to the assembly, said: "A regional assembly would simply not have the powers over transport claimed by the Yes campaign. The Regional Assemblies Bill makes it clear that a regional assembly would not be able to upgrade the A1 and it would not be able to operate any rail franchises. All an assembly would do is express an opinion on proposals put forward elsewhere."

A rejection of the assembly plan will be a personal blow for Mr Prescott, who persuaded largely sceptical Cabinet colleagues to back what he called 'the great North vote" originally covering 11 million voters.

Although he has promised that the two postponed referendums would still be held, the reality is that if the North East votes No the whole regional reform agenda will be dead in the water.
Bernard Jenkin, the Conservatives' regions spokesman, said: "If there is a No vote the Government's whole constitutional agenda is thrown into chaos. John Prescott is completely discredited as this has been his personal project."